Is Tokyo real estate under a bubble economy⁉

Tokyo real estate prices are rising. With that, we often see voices like this and articles like this. Someday prices will go down. ” The Olympics are over”  “COVID-19 still here and Tokyo’s real estate bubble will finally burst”  These are the opinions.

Is this really true? We looked into the rise in real estate prices in various countries.

According to a survey by the Japan Real Estate Institute is as following.

【 Condominium price increase index for each city from 2010 to October 2021

Price as of 2010 set at 100 】

Tokyo        116.1

Beijing       223.7

Hong Kong  163.9

Taipei     123.1

New York    135.0

London     139.1

In the comparison of the above cities, Tokyo has seen the smallest price increase in the past 10 years, and compared to cities in other countries, the price increase in Tokyo real estate is not a real estate bubble-like phenomenon.

It can be said that Tokyo is the city with the most stable and continuing appreciation.

In other words, the rise in real estate prices is occurring on a global scale, and the cause of the price increase is not limited to Tokyo, where the Olympics were held.

Under these social conditions, it is difficult to imagine that only Tokyo real estate prices will fall. Tokyo is a world-class metropolis in terms of infrastructure and economic scale, and even if Tokyo real estate were to crash but investors and funds from around the world would still buy Tokyo real estate.

Next, let’s consider how attractive Tokyo is from a global perspective.

According to the Global Power Ranking of Cities ((Global Power City Index (GPCI)(The Mori Memorial Foundation Institute for Urban Strategies)), which evaluates the “overall power” of each of the world’s 48 major cities in six areas: economy, research and development, culture and exchange, livability, environment, transportation and access, Tokyo has ranked third for 6 consecutive years. Tokyo is ranked in the top 10 in all but the environment out of the above six categories.  (17th in environment).

From Global Power Ranking of Cities (The Mori Memorial Foundation Institute for Urban Strategies)

Furthermore, there are many planned urban developments in Tokyo.

Many redevelopment projects are planned, including the Tokyo Torch Tower, Toranomon/Azabudai redevelopment, Shinjuku West Exit, Takanawa Gateway and the opening of the Linear Central Shinkansen connecting Tokyo and Nagoya.

Tokyo real estate will continue to rise in the future because Tokyo is an attractive city from a global perspective and redevelopment and other projects will further enhance the city’s functionality. So, how much will redevelopment drive up real estate prices? We will explain in the next time. Stay tuned!

【Summary】

1) Tokyo real estate prices are rising, but it is hard to say that they are under  a bubble economy from a global perspective.

2) Highly ranked in the world as an urban function

3) There are many redevelopment projects scheduled to take place in the future so it will have a significant impact on investment returns.